Confidence is increasing in a severe weather threat for the region from Saturday late afternoon through parts of the overnight hours. At this point we are starting to get more model runs on this system and over the next 24 hours we will get plenty more that should allow us to give better details on exact impacts and timing but here is what we can tell you right now. The broad window for severe weather Saturday is 3 PM – 4 AM Sunday and could come in two rounds, it will NOT be storming this whole time, and the sun may be out at times Saturday afternoon, which wouldn’t be the best-case scenario as this would allow more thunderstorm fuel to develop. Round one of possible storms will come from scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon through the early evening, if we see these storms, then this would be when our best tornado threat would be as these storms would be discreet and out by themselves this would also be occurring during peak heating which would allow for more thunderstorm fuel (instability) to be present. Round two of these storms would be late evening through parts of the overnight when what could be an intense line of storms would move into the region. The main threat within the line would be strong straight line damaging wind gust up to 70 MPH but again a tornado or two could not be ruled out with that activity. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has our entire region in a level 2 risk of severe weather on their Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook, they did not that risk upgrades could be needed across the Central Appalachian region in their morning discussion. What should you do? Stay with us for the latest severe weather forecast updates, the current plan is to have another update out late this evening then starting tomorrow doing an update at least 3 times a day. Stick with FirstWARN Tri-Cities and we will keep you updated.
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