Storms possible Tuesday ; Severe??

STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY — HERE'S OUR THINKING

Storms remain possible through the day Tuesday, so let's break down the potential.

A complex of storms will push toward the area from Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia during the early morning hours. These storms will likely be weakening as they approach, but any outflow boundaries left behind could help spark new storms.

The main severe weather threat with this round is probably between 3 and 8 AM, but models are typically not great at handling these types of storm complexes. Because of that, we cannot completely rule out a strong to severe storm anywhere between 1 AM and 10 AM.

Now, let's talk about the afternoon and evening, which is what everyone is talking about.

More storms could develop across the region, and there is a low risk for a strong to severe storm. The upper-level dynamics do look impressive — we won't deny that. However, what happens during the morning could have a major impact on the afternoon and evening setup.

If the morning storms leave behind too much cloud cover, rain, or outflow, it could limit the thunderstorm fuel available for additional storms later in the day. Typically, a lack of thunderstorm fuel is what can lead to little severe weather despite impressive upper-level dynamics.

Most models also do not show widespread thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. That could certainly change, but the lack of storm coverage shown by the models is another reason we are not overly concerned at this time.

If we do not see a significant morning round of storms and models begin showing more development along the front, then we could start talking about a more active period between 1 and 9 PM. Right now, however, that does not appear to be the most likely scenario.

As always, we will continue to monitor the forecast and adjust if needed. We also encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, just in case.